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Non-farm payrolls

  • Prior +216K (revised to +333K)
  • Two-month net revision -K vs -71K prior
  • Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.8% expected
  • Prior unemployment rate 3.7%
  • Participation rate 62.5% vs 62.5% prior
  • U6 underemployment rate 7.2% vs 7.1% prior
  • Average hourly earnings +0.6% m/m vs +0.3% expected
  • Average hourly earnings +4.5% y/y vs +4.1% expected
  • Average weekly hours vs 34.3 expected
  • Change in private payrolls +317K vs +164K expected
  • Change in manufacturing payrolls +23K vs +5K expected
  • Household survey K vs -683K prior
  • Birth-death adjustment K vs -52K prior

USD/JPY was trading at 146.67 ahead of the data and the market was pricing in 142 bps in cuts by year end and a 34% chance in March of a cut.

This is undoubtedly hawkish and USD/JPY is up to 147.54 immediately with March down to 21% and 127 bps on the year.

This report is reminiscent of last January’s report where there was also a huge beat. There are big seasonal adjustments in January and I think the BLS is struggling with that, something I wrote about at the start of the week.

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