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It’s tough to gather much conviction in markets this week. 10-year yields in the US are up 3.1 bps to 4.123% in European morning trade today. And that comes after a drop yesterday, which followed a rise on Monday. The push and pull sees yields continue to move around its 200-day moving average of around 4.103% currently:

US Treasury 10-year yields (%) daily chart

In the bigger picture, the ceiling near 4.20% and floor near 3.80% are key levels to watch on the chart.

But for now, we’re staying in between that with very little conviction to really test those boundaries. The slight nudge higher in yields today is keeping the dollar steadier overall but trading more mixed. Dollar pairs are mostly little changed so far on the session. The only slight movers are GBP/USD, which is up 0.2% to 1.2627, and USD/CHF, which is up 0.4% to 0.8725 currently.

Going back to the bond market, I want to highlight that we do have two upcoming Treasury auctions this week.

The first will be for 10-year notes later today and then another for 30-year notes tomorrow. Considering the lack of key data releases this week, the auctions might end up driving the moves in the bond market in the sessions to come.


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