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EUR/USD Prices and Analysis

  • EU inflation moves lower but misses forecasts.
  • EUR/USD testing the 1.0800 level again.

Recommended by Nick Cawley

Introduction to Forex News Trading

Euro Area core inflation fell for the 7th straight month, data from Eurostat showed earlier, but missed expectations of a larger fall. EU core inflation is now at the lowest level in two years.

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For all market-moving economic data and events, see the real-time DailyFX Economic Calendar

Today’s release did little to shift interest rate expectations. Markets continue to forecast around 90 basis points of cuts this year – three or four 25bp cuts – with the June 6th meeting seen as the most likely starting point. A cut at this meeting would mean the ECB being the first major central bank to cut rates, leaving the Euro at risk of falling further.

The daily EUR/USD chart shows the pair testing 1.0800 again, with the pair flashing a short-term negative signal as it opens and trades back below the 200-day simple moving average. A break below 1.0800 leaves prior support around 1.0787 vulnerable, along with the last simple moving average at 1.0788. Below here the February 14th multi-month low print at 1.0695 the next target. If the pair can reclaim the 200-dsma at 1.0828, then the 1.0866/1.0870 area comes back into play.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

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Retail trader data shows 54.99% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.22 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 10.29% higher than yesterday and 7.10% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.68% lower than yesterday and 6.70% lower than last week.




of clients are net long.




of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 11% -12% -1%
Weekly 8% -10% -1%

What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.



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