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The dollar is mildly higher to start the day after a more mixed showing in trading yesterday. A late surge higher in Treasury yields helped to see the greenback pare losses, and that is keeping traders on edge for now. Here are two key dollar pairs in focus at the moment:

Looking to European trading, the overall risk mood is more tentative at best. US stocks saw a late retreat as well, though tech shares outperformed once again with the Nasdaq closing up 0.4%. The S&P 500 managed to squeeze out a 0.1% gain while the Dow closed down 0.3%. US futures are flattish now as such, failing to gather much from the push and pull overnight.

In the bond market, 10-year yields in the US are down 2 bps to 4.158% but it comes after a turnaround yesterday. Yields were initially lower in Europe but reversed higher in US trading, with 10-year yields even touching a high of 4.19% at one point. But more importantly, it is holding above its 200-day moving average of 4.10% on the week still.

In terms of the agenda in Europe today, the ECB is the main highlight. The policy decision itself should be more straightforward, so all eyes will be on Lagarde’s presser instead. She should continue to preach data dependency but traders will be watching out for any leanings in her language as well as any lesser or additional pushback on the current market pricing.

As things stand, the odds of a rate cut in April are at ~72% while there is roughly 127 bps worth of rate cuts priced for this year.

0745 GMT – France January business confidence
0900 GMT – Germany January Ifo business climate index
1100 GMT – UK January CBI retailing reported sales
1315 GMT – ECB January monetary policy decision
1345 GMT – ECB president Lagarde press conference

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

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