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USD

  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
    expected while dropping the tightening bias in the statement but adding a
    slight pushback against a March rate
    cut.
  • Fed Chair Powell stressed
    that they want to see more evidence of inflation falling back to target and
    that a rate cut in March is not their base case.
  • The latest US GDP beat
    expectations by a big margin.
  • The US PCE came
    mostly in line with expectations with the Core 3-month and 6-month annualised
    rates falling below the Fed’s 2% target.
  • The US NFP report
    beat expectations across the board by a big margin.
  • The ISM Manufacturing
    PMI

    surprised to the upside with the new orders index, which is considered a
    leading indicator, jumping back into expansion. Similarly, the ISM Services PMI beat
    expectations across the board with the employment sub-index erasing the prior
    drop and prices paid jumping above 60.
  • The US Consumer
    Confidence
    report came in line with expectations but
    the labour market details improved considerably.
  • The market now expects the first rate cut in May.

AUD

  • The
    RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected with the central bank
    maintaining the usual tightening bias and data dependent language.
  • The
    recent Monthly CPI report missed expectations across
    the board which was a welcome development for the RBA.
  • The
    latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
    margin.
  • The
    wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
    growth in Australia remains strong.
  • The
    latest Australian PMIs improved with the Manufacturing
    measure bouncing back into expansion while the Services one remains in
    contraction.
  • The
    market expects the RBA to start cutting rates in June.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

AUDUSD Daily

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD broke
through the key support zone
around the 0.65 handle and pulled back to retest the level. The sellers should
keep on looking to sell the rallies with the first opportunity coming around
the support now turned resistance and the
second around the trendline and the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
The buyers, on the other hand, will need the price to break above the trendline
to invalidate the bearish bias and start targeting new highs.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

AUDUSD 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have also
red 21 moving average for confluence at the
resistance zone. If the price were to break higher, the buyers will likely pile
in to position for a rally into the trendline and ultimately target a break
above it. The sellers, on the other hand, will take it as an opportunity to
position for new lows with an even better risk to reward setup.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

AUDUSD 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action and we can notice that the latest leg lower diverged with
the MACD. This
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we got the pullback into the most recent swing high
where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence.
This is where the sellers are likely to continue to step in with a defined risk
above the level to position for a drop into new lows, while the buyers will
look for a break to the upside to increase the bullish bets into the major
trendline.

Upcoming Events

This week is basically empty on the data front with just
the latest US Jobless Claims figures on Thursday being the only notable
release.

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